Breaking Down the Final Four

Don't pretend you are excited for the Final Four. You're not. There are no dominant teams or star players. I mean, when Da'Sean Butler is the biggest name left, then you know a lot of the excitement is gone. Not to say the games won't be good. Actually, with these matchups, they may be great. But you have to be a little bummed.

The only storyline that you'll hear all week is the Butler/Hoosiers comparison. Which is weak, at best. So I say, let's break down the stats. It's really the only interesting thing about the Final Four.

Michigan State vs Butler

For me, there are 6 statistical categories that matter in basketball. These are field goal percentage (offensive and defensive), rebound differential, turnover margin and three point percentage (offensive and defensive). Here are the two teams' breakdowns (national rank in parentheses)

Michigan State:

FG%: 47.3 (27th)
DFG%: 40.5 (51st)
RD: +9.0 (1st)
TM: -1.1 (240)
3PT%: 34.3 (163rd)
D3PT%: 32.5 (91st)

Butler:

FG%: 45.3 (78th)
DFG%: 41.4 (89th)
RD: +3.7 (60th)
TM: +1.3 (99th)
3PT%: 34.2 (162nd)
D3PT%: 30.9 (38th)

Now, on paper, it looks like a mismatch favoring the Spartans. But when you take the injured Kalin Lucas' 45% field goal percentage out of the mix, the only thing Michigan State really does well is rebound. Butler may not be leading the nation in any one category, but their worst statistic (3 point percentage) is still better than MSU's. Also, the Spartans' 240th ranked turnover margin is pathetic.

I just don't see how MSU can score against Butler. Unless they maximize every possession by not turning the ball over (unlikely), the only advantage they have is on the boards. But if they don't absolutely clean the glass (think 45-22 advantage), they will have less possessions and be least likely to score per possession.

I like Butler in a very low scoring game (over/under is currently at 126). The one thing that could give Michigan State the edge is that they are used to grinding games out in March. It's a game they'll be comfortable playing. However, the same is true with Butler, who is playing 15 minutes away from their campus.

West Virginia vs Duke

Here's the breakdowns:

West Virginia:

FG%: 43.4 (181st)
DFG%: 42.4 (136th)
RD: +6.8 (9th)
TM: +1.8 (63rd)
3PT%: 33.6 (184th)
D3PT%: 33.3 (126th)

Duke:

FG%: 44.0 (146th)
DFG%: 40.4 (48th)
RD: +5.9 (19th)
TM: +3.8 (16th)
3PT%: 38.2 (28th)
D3PT%: 28.2 (4th)

This looks like an even bigger matchup favoring Duke, and with their +11.3 rebounding margin during the tournament (excluding the first round, for obvious reasons), the one thing WVU does really well seems to be eliminated. Plus, with only one primary ball handler left, WVU would seem to be at a complete disadvantage when it comes to turnovers. Add the unlikeliness that the Mountaineers repeat their barrage of threes that they unloaded on Kentucky (Duke is 4th in the nation in defensive three point shooting), then it doesn't look good.

Here's the problem: Duke's entire offensive revolves around perimeter shooting. It's worked out thus far, especially late against Baylor, but how long can that hold up? They won't have very much success down low, so West Virginia can key in on three pointers defensively. This whole tournament, what has propelled Duke's threes is offensive rebounding, which they won't be able to get easily in this game.

This is going to come down to Duke hitting shots, really. And I would never put money down on a team who needs to rain threes for a victory. Coach Bob Huggins knocked Duke out of the tournament two years ago, and I see him doing the same thing here. You simply cannot rely on perimeter shooting to play a defense like this, as Duke clearly does.