2010 MLB Predictions (American League)

Predictions, like most sports analysis, are a win/win situation. If you get things wrong, nobody remembers. However, if you somehow strike gold and guess right, you can brag about it all year long. Now how could I pass an opportunity like that up? So here are my 2010 MLB predictions.

AL EAST

Winner: Boston Red Sox

I'm quite aware that the Yankees won the World Series last year. I am also privy to the fact that Steinbrenner & Sons spend more than anybody in baseball. But none of that matters. You know what matters? Pitching matters.

The Yankees had a team ERA of 4.26 (12th in the majors) in 2009. But their "ace" (more on the quotes later) didn't even have a win in the World Series. Oh, and that Hall of Fame closer? He's 40 years old. Scooby Doo is 40 years old. Think about it.

Anyways, here's the big "if": can C.C. Sabathia keep a sub 3.50 ERA again? He's only done it twice with the same team (Cleveland) and that was in the AL Central, where he won't be facing the offenses he will see day to day in the AL East. If he struggles just a little, the ground lost is enough to give the Sox the crown.

Seriously, what was the Red Sox's downfall in 2009? Offense. But look at the numbers. They were 3rd in the majors in runs scored, 2nd in OPS, 2nd in slugging, 6th in batting average, 3rd in RBIs and 4th in home runs. They were also in the top half of every pitching statistical category except for batting average, but every AL East team was in the top half in the batting category. So the question you gotta ask yourself is, was that Boston's fault or the result of good hitting?

I say it's a result of just a good division. If the addition of John Lackey and a healthy Dice-K/Beckett combo teams up with Cy Young dark horse John Lester and best 5th-man in the league Clay Buchholz ends up anchoring this team? Turn the lights out in New York.

AL CENTRAL

Winner: Minnesota Twins

Baseball Prospectus has the Twins winning this division at a forgettable 81-81 record. And you know what? I kind of agree. Though I do think the White Sox could be a sleeper here.

What killed Chicago is both their batting average and OPS. But don't think that key addition Juan Pierre (who's career BA and OPS gains ground in Chicago, especially against the 13th, 23rd, 26th and 29th worst ERAs in the majors) won't make a difference. If Jake Peavy can regain the San Diego form he once had (sub 3.00 ERA in 4 of 6 seasons), beware.

But that's a lot of "ifs". I like the sure bet. I like experience and a trustworthy program. I like the Twins.

AL WEST

Winner: Texas Rangers

The West isn't quite the best, as far as high level baseball. But as an arms race? To quote Sarah Palin, "You betcha!" To give you some perspective, Baseball Prospectus has my last place team, the Oakland Athletics, tied for first. Ugh.

Here's my take, in short: the Angels lost too much, the A's don't have quite enough, the Rangers have enough and the Mariners are said to have enough. You got that?

I understand the Seattle fixation. They were 6th in the majors in ERA last year and added Cliff Lee. But they were also next to last in batting average in the majors (they had .352 Ichiro Suzuki, mind you), finished last in the AL in runs and 26th in the majors in OPS. And did I mention that Milton Bradley is involved?

Give me the Rangers. Offense? Check. Pitching? Always getting better. Fielding? 5th lowest error total in 2009. Weak division? You got it.